On April 23rd, which is exactly 4 weeks on from today, French voters will participate in the first round of the presidential election and the wagering interest has become massive. On Betfair exchange along, currently £7.5m of bets have been made, and its size terms can only be compared with Trump and BREXIT.
Since the French do not allow bettors to access online British bookies, while they are in France it is safe to assume that little of the wagering interest has come from people who will vote. We are currently being contacted by the French media to explain why there is such an interest in the United Kingdom.
The signs from the polls show that Marine Le Pen, the right candidate is going to win the first round. However, this will not be enough, and it seems that she will struggle on the second round on the 7th of May when the two that are at the top will have to slug it out.
Because of the system, polling is a tad complex. The voters are asked about their first round preferences, and then they are presented with alternatives for the second one. Thus, it is important not to be misled by reports for their choices for the first round.
The 39-year-old independent is currently running against Emmanuel Macron. He has a 20+% second round margin over Le Pen. However, it is narrower over Fillon, who is a Republican.